BBC Preview: Unit, Lincecum make Giants pitchers favorable for Week 9

Funny things, those curses can be.

As a Yankees fan, I can tell you all about 'em. Talk to a Cubs or Red Sox fan, and they'd also be happy to fill you in. But in no way was I expecting the kind of "curse" suggestions that some of my readers came up with this week. Take a look:

Jeff of San Diego writes: "So basically, whichever pitching staff you choose for the week, Baseball Challenge participants should avoid them like The Plague, right? Just saying that your track record has not been so hot lately. But you look great today."

That one came in the day after the Angels, my Week 8 Baseball Challenge pitching staff selection, had amassed minus-40 points in their first two games of the week. Regular BBC-column reader Don Morgese chimed in: "I don't want you to pick the Mets because you'll put your curse on them, but if you do, it's fine since my hitting usually beats yours (I have 120 to your 68 as of this writing, and we both have the Angels)."

"My curse?" That's a new one, although I admit I did point out when picking the Mets in Week 6 that they tend to underperform the few times I select them. And sure enough, the Metropolitans totaled 79 BBC points in their seven games, which at the time was my worst total of any week this season. (Might stay that way if the Angels rally this weekend.)

So I decided to take a look back and see if there's any truth to what Jeff and Donald were saying. After all, if I'm truly "cursed" when picking pitching staffs, it's absolutely a strategy for BBC players to exploit -- go against my suggestions. Frankly, I'd almost wish people would so we don't have common points from our most productive position! A big disadvantage it is by announcing my staff before the deadline, but consider this:

Week 1, Dodgers: 109 BBC points, 7 games
Week 2, Dodgers: 140, 6 games
Week 3, Rays: 81, 6 games
Week 4, Dodgers: 107, 7 games
Week 5, Dodgers: 112, 7 games
Week 6, Mets: 79, 7 games
Week 7, White Sox: 110, 7 games
Week 8, Angels: minus-10, 3 games
Total: 728 BBC points, 50 games, average of 14.6 per game
Average points per game for the top-10 BBC pitching staffs: 12.9
Average points per game for the No. 1 BBC pitching staff (Dodgers): 14.7

Doesn't sound like a curse to me. Sounds more like some recent bad luck, and nothing more.

So with that said, let's snap out of this funk, shall we?

Tristan's top three pitching staff values

1. St. Louis Cardinals (CIN-4, COL-3 -- two-start pitchers Todd Wellemeyer and Kyle Lohse), 5.9 price tag: I discussed the Cardinals' home-field advantage a bit in my Forecaster, but I'll throw you a bonus stat here: The Cardinals' five current starters have a 3.05 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 24 starts at Busch Stadium this season. The healthy return of Chris Carpenter has provided this staff a significant, additional boost, and I don't see either of these opponents' offenses as especially threatening.

2. New York Mets (@PIT-4, @WAS-3 -- two-start pitchers Livan Hernandez and Johan Santana), 6.6: Anytime you've got a perennial Cy Young candidate like Santana slated to pitch twice, you're in pretty good shape for weekly BBC success. But this pick also draws back to the Mets' recent pitching success; they have a 3.30 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in their past 10 games. And while the Nationals are a better-hitting team than you might think, the Pirates surely aren't, ranking 22nd in the majors with a .729 team OPS.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers (ARI-3, PHI-4 -- two-start pitchers Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf), 7.2: They're expensive, and that's one thing keeping them out of the top spot. But when a team's two-start pitchers have combined for a 2.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nine starts at home, and it's scheduled for an entire week at home in a pitcher-friendly venue, it surely warrants a look in the BBC. Remember, the Dodgers have won 18 of 23 home games this year; no team has a better home winning percentage.

Sleeper alert: San Francisco Giants (@WAS-3, @FLA-3 -- two-start pitcher Tim Lincecum), 5.3. Expect a bit of a buzz surrounding Randy Johnson's quest for his 300th victory, which might very well come at Washington's Nationals Park, one of four current ballparks in which he has never pitched (Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park and New York's Citi Field and Yankee Stadium are the three others). Regardless of Johnson's performance on Wednesday, though, the Giants are in excellent shape in the BBC with Lincecum -- 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 74 strikeouts in 57 innings in his past eight starts -- pitching twice. Remember, those Marlins strike out a ton.

More smack talk!

Want to talk smack? Feel free: E-mail me. And don't be afraid to bust my chops. I can take it.

"Rhlawitzke" of Davenport, Fla., writes: You say Joe Mauer is on your radar, but he should be on your roster. Take a look at the numbers compared to Victor Martinez's production. Just think, you could have locked in Joe M. at 4.7 when he came off the DL. If I am not mistaken, month to date Joe Mauer has produced 131 pts to Victor's 97. He could be on track to claim the MVP if he stays consistent. Grab him now before he gets too expensive!

It's true, Mauer has outperformed Martinez in the month of May, racking up 151 points to V-Mart's 110. A couple of things, though: It's not like anyone believed Mauer was guaranteed to stay healthy, let alone go on a tear like he has, and at the time I made that comment I actually had Martinez locked in cheaper (4.8) than what Mauer would have cost (5.0). Not to mention that slashing Martinez would mean that he'd cost me 6.0 to re-sign today. And even though I'm a Mauer fan and think the power -- to an extent -- is legit, the fact remains that it's Martinez who has actually had more triple-digit months in terms of BBC points in his career:

Mauer, May 2009: 151
Martinez, May 2007: 118
Martinez, April 2006: 117
Martinez, May 2009: 110
Mauer, June 2006: 108
Martinez, May 2004: 107
Martinez, June 2007: 104
Mauer, May 2006: 103
Martinez, August 2005: 102
Martinez, September 2006: 101

From 2005 to 2008 -- which includes Martinez's dreadful 2008 -- Mauer actually has only one-tenth of a point's advantage in BBC points per game (3.39 to 3.29). So unless you believe he's capable of maintaining a 36.7 home run/fly ball percentage (yeah, right), you're talking about very similar players. To me, you want one or the other, period.

Daily dips

Monday, June 1 -- Adam Jones, CF, Orioles (versus Jarrod Washburn), 5.2 price tag: Might a game back at Safeco Field, versus his old team, motivate Jones to further greatness? Possibly. After all, he was 10-for-23 (.435 BA) with five RBIs in five games as a visiting player there in 2008, and he's 3-for-7 (.429 BA) with two doubles in his career against Washburn. Don't worry about his 2009 numbers having been ballpark-aided; he's a .319 hitter with a 1.014 OPS in 17 road games this year.

Tuesday, June 2 -- Rick Ankiel, CF, Cardinals (versus Bronson Arroyo), 4.4: Not that Ankiel has done much since his return from the disabled list, but a matchup against Arroyo might get him jump-started. He's a lifetime .385 hitter (5-for-13) with one double and three home runs against the right-hander. He's also a .279 hitter with 22 homers and an .873 OPS in 105 career games at Busch Stadium.

Wednesday, June 3 -- Kevin Youkilis, 1B, Red Sox (versus Armando Galarraga), 5.4: Tough to explain why, but Youkilis loves hitting at Comerica Park, where he's a lifetime .327 hitter with eight home runs, 17 RBIs and a 1.281 OPS in 14 games. He's also 2-for-3 with both hits being homers in his career against Galarraga, and they both were hit (where else?) at Comerica.

Thursday, June 4 -- Melky Cabrera, CF, Yankees (versus Brandon McCarthy), 3.7: If there's any time to use Cabrera, it's at the new Yankee Stadium, where he has hit all five of his home runs this season and batted .338 with 18 RBIs and a .960 OPS. But this game stands out in particular because of his history against McCarthy; in three career plate appearances versus the right-hander, he has a double and two home runs.

Friday, June 5 -- Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays (versus Phil Hughes), 5.7: New Yankee Stadium tends to favor left-handed sluggers, and Pena's a heck of a left-handed slugger, one who already has two home runs in as many games at the new park. He's also 2-for-3 with two homers and three walks in his career against Hughes.

Saturday, June 6 -- Torii Hunter, CF, Angels (versus Edwin Jackson), 5.6: He was 2-for-3 with one home run versus Jackson in their April 23 meeting, and for his career he's 3-for-8 with two homers and one walk versus the Tigers right-hander. Hunter also batted .333 with a 1.093 OPS in six games at Comerica Park in 2008.

Sunday, June 7 -- Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians (versus Gavin Floyd), 4.1: There haven't been many days where it has been worthwhile to use Peralta, but here's one possibility. He's 6-for-9 with two doubles and two home runs versus Floyd between this and last season, and in his past 16 games at U.S. Cellular Field, he's a .302 hitter with three homers, 14 RBIs and a .944 OPS.

Tristan's Week 9 lineup

Total points: 2,283 (through Thursday).
Percentage: 99.6. Overall rank: 219th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 33rd.

C -- Victor Martinez, Indians (NYY-1, @MIN-3, @CHW-3), locked at 4.8 price tag, 6.0 market: Again, it's V-Mart or Mauer. I think any other pick is nuts.
1B -- Mark Teixeira, Yankees (@CLE-1, TEX-3, TB-3), locked at 5.0, 5.3 market: He has an absolutely unreal 134 BBC points in his past 23 games.
2B -- Robinson Cano, Yankees (@CLE-1, TEX-3, TB-3), 5.1: It was time to let Ian Kinsler go, and remember, it's good to grab those lefties at Yankee Stadium.
3B -- David Wright, Mets (@PIT-4, @WAS-3), locked at 4.7, 5.6 market: Who cares that the ballpark is spacious? It's not like it's limiting his BBC potential.
SS -- Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (MIL-4, SF-3), locked at 5.0, 5.5 market: I'm concerned I might have to swap him out before Sunday night if he hasn't proven himself healthy by then, but if he does, he's my pick in a seven-game home week.
LF -- Ryan Braun, Brewers (@FLA-4, @ATL-3), locked at 4.8, 5.6 market: Another small health concern, but it was good to see him back in the lineup this past Wednesday, a night after he departed early.
CF -- Matt Kemp, Dodgers (ARI-3, PHI-4), 5.0: I like the matchups and the Dodgers' offense actually hasn't been any less productive without Manny.
RF -- Nick Markakis, Orioles (@SEA-3, @OAK-3), locked at 5.0, 5.5 market: Not the most pleasing of matchups, but I just wasn't wowed by the alternatives.
DH -- Gary Sheffield, Mets (@PIT-4, @WAS-3), 4.0: Crazy choice, right? He has 75 BBC points in his past 13 games, and is now the Mets' cleanup hitter.
Pitching staff -- Cardinals (CIN-4, COL-3), 5.9

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.